Is This Year’s Indy 500 Team Penske’s to Lose?

Team Penske drivers (l-r), Scott McLaughlin, Will Power and Josef Newgarden

Photo Credit: Chris Owens, Penske Entertainment

According to DraftKings SportsBook, all three Team Penske drivers are the leading favorites to win the 108th Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge.

Scott McLaughlin, driving the No. 3 Pennzoil Team Penske Chevrolet is the favorite holding +450 odds to win after qualifying on the pole. Josef Newgarden, in the No. 2 Shell Powering Progress Team Penske Chevrolet, has the second best odds at +550 to repeat last year’s “500” win, while Will Power and the No. 12 Verizon Business Team Penske Chevrolet has the third best odds at +650, starting from the middle of the front row.

Team Penske drivers were fast in April’s open test at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway with Newgarden topping the speed chart. Once they returned to the legendary 2.5-mile oval in May, Newgarden, Power and McLaughlin picked up where they left off.

Photo Credit: Chris Jones, Penske Entertainment

Although he only posted the 20th fastest speed in Friday’s two-hour Carb Day final practice session, McLaughlin remains confident about Sunday’s race.

“Very similar to what we started with this week. We haven't really played around too much mechanically with the car. It felt good out of the box, and just sort of building my confidence with it. We tried a few different downforce levels there just to get an idea.

“Looks like cooler temps for Sunday as well as Monday if that gets pushed back. Hopefully not. But ultimately you're just sort of going through the motions, attacking the pit speed line. I actually sped, which was a good thing to get that out of the way now. A few other things like just pit stop practice and whatnot. I was just ticking things off the list.

“Yeah, felt really good, but didn't put a big number up, but I think we're okay.”

For Power, it’s been a relatively straight forward month. He hopes it stays that way come race day.

“I've been here where you're just throwing everything out it at this point. On Carb Day we're like, Man, I don't feel comfortable. That hasn't been the case this month. Just hate waiting for the race. This is the worst time, these few days.

“You just want to get into it.”

Photo Credit: James Black, Penske Entertainment

One day closer to possibly repeating last year’s “500” win, Newgarden claims his car has been fantastic all month.

“This has been a really pleasurable month so far. I mean, for the whole team. You can see every individual on this team has been really proud of the effort, as they should be. What they achieved on the (qualifying) weekend is not easy to do, to make the cars as quick as they are. This didn't appear overnight. Everybody that has been here the last four years knows we've not had speed in the cars. We've been chipping away. Last year was a big step. Got pretty close, but we were still off. I think this year we really turned the page.

“Proud for the team. Everybody is happy and excited. For me, it's the opportunity to be here, to be in the race. It's a big deal to run the Indy 500. Excited to see what we can do on Sunday.”

Photo Credit: Joe Skibinski, Penske Entertainment

With their front row lockout, the three Penske drivers are in position to control the race from the start. McLaughlin believes maintaining track position will be important.

“I think we've seen over the years, I think Scottie (Dixon) and Alex (Palou) have done this before, really controlled that first sort of 100 odd laps and whatnot, so it is able to be done. But we haven't had an active discussion about it yet, but at the end of the day I'm sure there will be a sit-down with all three of us before the race and sort of analyze a few things.

“At the same time, I guess everyone knows that when you're out in front, you're chewing a lot of gas, so ultimately I think we'll take turns maybe at doing that or making sure that we keep ourselves in good track position. Ultimately that's what I'm thinking about.

“But yeah, certainly when you get back to sort of six, seven, eight deep it's quite definitely, so we need to make sure we're up in the front.

“Just let it come, let it happen. I haven't been at the front; starting 14th is best I've had. I'm excited to see what it looks like.”

Photo Credit: Chris Jones, Penske Entertainment

But there are 30 other drivers who aren’t ready to concede the race to either of Team Penske’s drivers.

In qualifying, Alexander Rossi, driver of the No. 7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet, said he was getting tired of hearing about the Penske trio and their talk of sweeping the front row. The 2016 Indy winner, who will start from the inside of the second row, doesn’t feel like Team Penske is invincible.

“No, not at all. I think qualifying and their improvements over the off-season were very much focused on qualifying. I think that the field gets a lot tighter kind of in race running. I think there's 10 cars that look good out there and that are very capable of winning the race on Sunday.

“Yes, obviously they're going to be good, but it's not just them. There's quite a few guys out there that look pretty strong.”

Photo Credit: John Cote, Penske Entertainment

Santino Ferrucci finished a career best third in last year’s “500” driving for  A.J. Foyt’s team. Penske and Foyt have a technical alliance that, according to Ferrucci, has paid off - for both teams.

“Yeah, obviously last year we were really quick in qualifying. I feel like we have had good cars here at Foyt, and part of our alliance for us is we struggled on road and street, we were good in the speedway. That's where Penske kind of wanted to make up some ground. It worked in a very -- it was a very helpful relationship for us, and then obviously, as you saw on Sunday for them, as much as certain drivers or a certain driver is not -- that's that guy. It's kind of how it is.

“But I'm not going to lie, I'm on their shocks, but they're tuned to my setup and my car, and it's every driver's preference. What makes speed in qualifying here isn't necessarily a setup, it's everything that goes into the car that we can't see. But your race car is very much driver preference, driver comfort, and there are a lot of really solid cars out there.

“Their three are pretty good. I'd say one or two of them actually looked really, really sporty compared to the third. I didn't run much around Alex (Rossi), but I did run around Kyle (Larson), and Kyle looks good, as well, and the 26 (Colton Herta) looks good. It's pretty much anybody's day come Sunday.”

Photo Credit: Joe Skibinski, Penske Entertainment

Herta, who was second quickest behind Newgarden in Monday’s post-qualifying practice, will start from the inside of the fifth row in his Gainbridge Andretti Global with Curb-Agajanian Honda. It’s his belief that the race can be won from anywhere in the field, but where you start does matter.

“It 100 percent matters. You have to take so much more risk the further back you start. On restarts and pit stops, pit entry and pit strategy, you have to take a lot more risks and do something that's a little bit different than everybody which can help you but also catch you out and make you a lot worse off. Ideally you're in that top 5 the whole race and you do what the leaders do. It makes it a lot easier. But if you have to come from the back, you have to take a lot more risks.”

Photo Credit: Aaron Skillman, Penske Entertainment

Despite not having a car qualify in the first four rows, team owner Chip Ganassi says he’s not overly concerned about the qualifying gap to Penske’s cars.

“Obviously, we weren't happy with qualifying, not our normal qualifying effort.

“The good news is we know what we did wrong. We've rectified a lot of that since then, what we could, and we're looking forward to the race.

“I mean, it's the same old thing, you know? And when you look at the statistics of it, six of the last 12 winners have come from outside the top 10. So, I'm not overly concerned about racing anybody that's in front of us. I think Chevrolet does seem to have a little bit of a power advantage right now, but you never know once the race starts.

“I'll take a (good) handling car any day over horsepower.”

Photo Credit: Matt Fraser, Penske Entertainment

2008 “500” winner and 6-time NTT INDYCAR SERIES champion Scott Dixon starts from the outside of the seventh row in Ganassi’s No. 9 PNC Bank Honda. After pacing final practice on Friday, Dixon plans to take it as it comes on race day.

“I think you've just got to roll with it. If you go in with any kind of preset notion of what you want to do, it just takes one person to change that.

“I think just going in with an open mind, trying to be quick on your feet, and I think that's true for the whole strategy for our race is just ready for change because I think there will be a lot of change going on. Especially with the weather conditions, there's a lot of things outside of your control. Just do the best that you can and see where it plays out.”

And how does Dixon plan to do that?

“Go fast. Don't crash.”

One factor that could impact the outcome of the race is the weather. With thunderstorms in Sunday’s forecast, rain could shorten the race as it did as recently as 2004 and 2007. With three strong cars, Penske could be in position to play different strategies should rain enter the equation. Dixon claims he’s not obsessing whether the race will run, or not, on Sunday, or if it will, or won’t, go the full distance.

“I think you can't look into it too much. It's the same for everybody. You can't do anything about it.

“It was weird, I think I remember having a nap in between the start and the finish of one of those, and then obviously it finished in the rain with -- was that '07, Dario (Franchitti) beating me under caution, so that was not fun. So not a good memory.

“But, yeah, it's weather. It is what it is. It might favor somebody in the end, might not. Hopefully it's you if you can ride that kind of train.”

Photo credit: Amber Pietz, Penske Entertainment

To get to this point, Penske’s three drivers have all worked together. But at some point during the race the camaraderie thing stops, according to Power.

“It's interesting because the race starts, in a way, slowly. Not speed-wise, but as far as aggression. It really ramps up in the last 50 (laps).

“I think the further back you are, the more aggressive you have to be to put yourself in a position at the end. It's a pretty cruise-y start in a way. Slowly work on your car, get in the first stint. Yeah, I mean, every man for themselves basically when it comes down to it. Coming down to the win, it is what it is.”

“As long as we don't take each other out, the boss is happy. That's the main thing,” added McLaughlin.

“It's a good problem to have,” continued Power. “I know they don't like that. It really is nerve-wracking for the higher ups like Roger (Penske) and Tim (Cindric, Team Penske president) to watch all three cars battle for a win. Tim has said it to me before. What can you do? You just hate to see an incident, but that he understands it's such a big event that it really is every man for themselves.”